Good News on the Horizon: Research from other sectors

A big part of what I do is bring trend information to the table for clients. I look beyond the arts to other sectors that can guide us. Today’s good news comes from Commercial Property News, a publication I regularly comb for trends regarding cultural center development, arts facilities in mixed use development, and even the trends witnessed by retailers who are the prime tenants in commercial properties.

This week’s issue focuses on a new study by RREEF Research, which is a highly regarded property research company, in this case through a study they did for Deutche Bank, on trends in US commercial real estate.

1. They see that the decline in sales of commercial properties will halt by mid summer, and that we will start seeing upturn by the last quarter this year.

2. Vacancies will decline by the start of 2010.

3. Neighborhood and community centers will be the first to start doing better.

What does this mean for our field?

1. Be ready. Those projects that you may think won’t be forthcoming may be just timed right for investment. Construction costs are lower by far than they were, and good deals can be found. Timing is great.

2. If yours is a community center mixed use venture, you should be working now to line things up. Developers will be ready to move by the last quarter of this year.

There’s one other interesting finding here. CPN reports that the “luxury goods” retailers will be among the first to see the uptick by the end of this year. I look at that and think that your subscription ticket sales next fall may be better than we could anticipate right now. A week ago, when I read that the Chicago Art Institute was increasing its admission prices to $18 come May, I thought it was not such good timing. But they seem to be right in line with this report of pent up demand meshed with a bit more expendible money. All in all, a good read of tea leaves that gives new energy to us all as we look to next season! Let’s banish fear, and get to work.

Caught in the Middle: Presenters and the 2010 season

“50 is the new 40″ in the booking world of the performing arts. And we’re not talking age. From the looks of artist fees, you’d never know there was even the hint of recession, much less an economic downturn. You want a name artist who can sell out the house? Plan on spending ten grand more this year than last.

But don’t plan on charging your customers for the difference.

Be prepared to market more, charge the same or less, and – yes, program less. Offer more moderately priced easy family fare to offset those big ticket events. Subsidize your series more than ever before.

Unless, of course, the field as a whole rose up and said “NO!!!” to the inflationary fees artists and entertainers are charging – fees with no relationship to reality. As long as everyone pays, though, expect business as usual, only more expensive. Hmmm. Will we ever see “30 is the new 40?”

The You Tube Orchestra

This could get old too fast if too many organizations sieze upon the idea…but when we are talking about new delivery mechanisms, new ways of involving people, new ways of building a world wide community of the arts…. WOW. How to get to Carnegie Hall. YouTube style…

http://www.youtube.com/symphony

New Opportunities, Agile Organizations…

So many layoffs, so much strife. What’s our industry to do? We’re going through real change, and only part of it has to do with the economy. Changed consumer patterns are just as big. We have to run just to stay in place. So grab your running shoes! We may live in scary times, but they sure are interesting.

As a member of a focus group I led last week in Trenton, NJ quipped, “Email is so 2008. Mobile text is so 2009.” Yes, if you are still worrying about email lists, maybe your should think about leapfrogging right to texting. All you need is cell phone numbers. Days Inn has been testing text messages. They ask guests upon arrival if they’d be willing to leave their cell numbers to get valuable text messages. They have found consistently, nationwide, that 29% of guests will do this. In exchange, guests get texts with bonus offers like reduced price coupons for breakfast or the like. One Days Inn in Boston reported literally standing room only at their restaurant for breakfast in return. Hmmm…text with coupons for the next event? Text your museum visitors for $3 off lunch at your restaurant…

This is the kind of rapid response to new technology we all can use. How else can we be rapid and agile? How can we respond to what could be crisis and turn it into new opportunity?

Back to Business

Okay friends, I did take a hiatus as a blog writer. Thinking time is important and I needed it. And, truth be told the combination of such giant changes around us combined with the winter months where as a Mom I spend every Saturday and Sunday (at least) getting our sons to some ski hill somewhere in the western US for USSA races….well, blog time got back burnered. You can see why…

But today is the first day of Spring! Let’s get at it.

First off, rumors of the demise of the arts are, to paraphrase the line, very premature. Yes, layoffs and cut backs are real and horrible. My heart goes out to every organization and every individual impacted.

But the arts are not impacted more than the rest of society. Is there an untouched industry out there – particularly one where consumer spending is involved? No. Have we gone through serious recessions before and come out strong? Yes, if you remember 1992, 1982, or 2001.

But let’s use this as a chance to do some real rethinking about our field. I still have my copy of William J. Baumol and William G. Bowen’s classic Performing Arts: The Economic Dilemma. (Cambridge: MIT Press) 1966. It is tattered, and it still rings true. In 1966, they laid out the reality of the structural deficit that defines the performing arts. (Add the visual arts, too.) Since 1966, our field has sought ways to pretend that structural deficit doesn’t exist. Public and private sector funders have sought to support the field around programs and projects, but still haven’t been able to fill the gap that is operations and overhead.

I was so excited when the NEA announced its stimulus funding of staff positions – finally a response to the realities Baumol and Boman mapped out 43 years ago. The unfortunate downside is the temporary nature of the funding – it doesn’t address the long term need that funding has to fill. From my little corner of the blogosphere, I’d champion this as a time for more funders to once and for all address the structural gap. It hasn’t gone away, and it won’t. No amount of project funding or new commissions or special initiatives will cover up the issue.

Other musings…

At the same time as being grateful for the stimulus funding from the NEA, I am terrified – as I hope you are – of Congress’ anti-museums, parks, zoos, botanical gardens stance on stimulus funding. Where did all that vitriol come from and why didn’t we anticipate it? When folks are really strapped for money the way most are today, seniors, families, and young adults flock to free days at museums and free concerts in parks, among other things!

Could it be that we have tried to over-sell the economic benefit argument and have forgotten to mention that cultural gathering places are what hold us together as civil society, bring us together in shared experience, and bring us a combination of civic pride and social engagement?

Or could it be that the arts have a stronger advocacy base to carve out their share of the funds? Despite all the work that scholars have done in the field of cultural policy, and all the applied work I do and so many others do in “cultural development” we still don’t have a cultural sector that works together to advocate for all that is culture. In this time of societal change, what would it take to create that sector, to build our strength, and to finally look at our field as a whole rather than competing interests?

And finally…

If you think that the arts aren’t getting some of the stimulus funding, check out Stimulus Watch and the other on-line listings of projects put forward for the funds. There are a number of mayors around the US that have inserted very significant capital development projects in the arts. I’m seeing hundreds of millions in arts capital projects, and the roll is growing by the day. So, at the local level, the belief in major civic arts projects as important to our future remains strong.