Best strategy to bank on for the arts in 2009?

The Foundation’s Center’s wrap up on 2008 giving (“Foundation Growth and Giving Estimates”) is just out. It turns out that 2008 wasn’t quite as bad as it could have been. Foundation giving as a whole dropped by only 1.3%. Community Foundation giving was up by 6.7% over 2007. Given all the economic hell that went on last year, the results could almost be considered comforting, especially when placed in the context of the giant increase in foundation giving that happened in 2007. (There was a 17.3% jump in charitable giving in 2007 over 2006, so 2008 represents a 16% increase over 2006.)

This good news won’t hold true for 2009, however. The same report notes that foundation giving will be down anywhere from the high single digits to the low double digets this year. 75% of community foundations will be cutting their giving, and corporate foundations, especially those in the financial sector, will be cutting drastically.

How should the arts respond as you are setting your budgets for the next fiscal year? I think that the arts will see some good news despite the status of foundation and corporate giving. My projection is on increased earned income, based on consumer pent up need translating into increased attendance. And, I think we’ll see some modest gains in time for the arts’ fall season. I’m basing this on last week’s report by Forbes’ economist Noriel Roubini, pojecting that the first quarter 2009 economic contraction of -6% will ease by the 4th quarter, up to about -2%. (By 2010 he projects we’ll be back into positive numbers. This means that the capacity for giving may rebound.) But more fundamentally, consumer spending will be up by fall. Project 4% growth over what you are seeing right now.

So my vote for the fall? Modest increases in earned income. Offer a great season, and market to that pent up consumer need.